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Overview
The Open-10 TRIN is a smoothed variation of the Arms Index. It is a market
breadth indicator that uses advancing/declining volume and advancing/declining issues to
measure the strength of the market.
Interpretation
The interpretation of Open-10 TRIN (also called the Open Trading Index) is similar to the
interpretation of the "normal" TRIN.
Readings above 0.90 are generally con-sidered bearish and readings below 0.90 are
considered bullish.
The following table was reprinted from Peter Eliades' Stock Market Cycles. It
shows what the DJIA did after the 10-day TRIN rose above the level of one.
Impressive...
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Table 9 |
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| 1st Reading &#gt; 1.0 |
Days to Final Low |
Next Market Move |
| May 23, 1984 |
3 |
60-point rally |
| June 15, 1984 |
1 |
63-point rally |
| July 20, 1984 |
3 |
165-point rally |
| October 10, 1984 |
0 |
88-point rally |
| November 16, 1984 |
1 |
45-point rally |
| December 5, 1984 |
3 |
69-point rally |
| January 3, 1985 |
1 |
130-point rally |
| March 15, 1985 |
1 |
48-point rally |
| April 30, 1985 |
2 |
96-point rally |
| June 19, 1985 |
3 |
78-point rally |
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I created a similar table for the period 1985 through 1988. The table appears below.
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Table 10 |
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| 1st Reading &#gt; 1.0 |
Days to Final Low |
Next Market Move |
| June 19, 1985 |
0 |
60-point rally |
| January 8, 1986 |
2 |
302-point rally |
| April 30, 1986 |
N/A |
16 point rally |
| July 15, 1986 |
0 |
41-point rally |
| September 11, 1986 |
1 |
141-point rally |
| January 2, 1987 |
0 |
445-point rally |
| October 15, 1987 |
2 |
289-point rally |
| November 13, 1987 |
4 |
68-point rally |
| November 27, 1987 |
5 |
285-point rally |
| January 14, 1988 |
5 |
285-point rally |
| February 8, 1988 |
5 |
79-point rally |
| March 11, 1988 |
0 |
53-point rally |
| April 4, 1988 |
0 |
127-point rally |
| May 12, 1988 |
0 |
39-point rally |
| May 17, 1988 |
4 |
211-point rally |
| July 1, 1988 |
N/A |
78-point rally |
| August 12, 1988 |
7 |
111-point rally |
| November 16, 1988 |
0 |
309-point rally |
| October 30, 1989 |
5 |
171-point rally |
| December 18, 1989 |
2 |
109-point rally |
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Calculation
The Open-10 TRIN is calculated by keeping a 10-day total of each of the TRIN's
components before performing the TRIN calculation.
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